September 9, 2010 | Filed Under Dallas Cowboys, David Buehler, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, NFC East, NFL, Preview/Prediction, Roy Williams (WR), Tony Romo | Comments Off
I love making predictions. Last year, I hit on quite a few of them.
So far this week, I’ve already posted my 2010 fantasy football predictions,“regular” football predictions, and Week 1 picks. These aren’t your run-of-the-mill “Cowboys will be between 4-12 and 14-2″ predictions either. They are bold to the point of being brash, my friend.
I have a lot of thoughts on the Cowboys’ 2010 season, and the most “drastic” of them are listed below. Keep in mind that I’m not just saying these things to say them. . .I actually believe each has a better chance of coming to fruition than not.
1. Tony Romo will lead the league in passing yards.
With more three-receiver sets likely and possibly even a higher pass ratio (which I actually support), 4500+ yards is very, very attainable. The other “top dogs” in contention include Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning.
2. Jason Hatcher will record at least five sacks.
This is somewhat bold for a player with one sack last year and 1.6 sacks-per-season during his four-year career. However, as you can see to the left, Hatcher recorded 17 pressures last season – tied for the most of any defensive end. The 4.40 percent rate at which he reached the quarterback was also the best on the team.
Hatcher should see more snaps this season as well, particularly because he’s Marcus Spears’ primary backup. With Spears likely to be on another team in 2011, the Cowboys may try to phase Hatcher into the starting lineup, assuming he can hold up against the run.
3. Tashard Choice will score 8+ TDs
I already think Choice should be the team’s short-yardage back. He was five-for-seven in limited short-yardage opportunities last season and led the team with 5.8 yards-per-carry on runs up the middle (which is why I gave him a ‘B+’ in my 2009 running back grades).
Apart from the fact that I think Dallas will use more Wildcat in the red zone this season (which is exactly what they should do), Choice is the third option behind two players who don’t have the most injury-free of pasts. If either Marion Barber or Felix Jones goes down for an extended period of time, Choice could be “the man” – he’s already the team’s best all-around running back, in my opinion.
4. Alan Ball will move back to cornerback (full-time) at some point this season in favor of Akwasi Owusu-Ansah at free safety.
The Cowboys obviously already view both Ball and AOA as safety/cornerbacks or they wouldn’t have kept only three “true” cornerbacks on the 53-man roster. Having said that, I think Ball’s tackling will become a liability for Dallas at some point this season. He struggled mightily against the run in the preseason, and last year he missed 22.2 percent of his attempts. If he doesn’t make a lot of plays in the passing game to compensate for his lack of elite tackling ability, I think ‘Kwasi could get a shot.
5. Speaking of AOA. . .he will have at least one return touchdown this season.
I loved what I saw from AOA on returns during the preseason. More than anything, he was decisive. That’s perhaps the most important trait for a return man to possess. Felix Jones is explosive, but he became indecisive on kick returns and was subsequently quite ineffective.
AOA should end up manning both return positions by season’s end (or perhaps even by opening night if the Cowboys don’t use Dez Bryant on punt returns).
6. Victor Butler will play close to 250 snaps and will record at least five sacks.
The kid has shown he is ready for more playing time. There’s no way Coach Phillips wants DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer playing 1,100+ snaps again this season, so either Butler or Brandon Williams will have to step up.
Butler was phenomenal in the preseason, particularly against the run (and we know he can get to the passer).
7. Anthony Spencer will lead the team in sacks.
If Spencer played on just about any other team, this prediction might not be very daring. When you play alongside DeMarcus Ware, though, no one is really expecting you to lead the team in sacks.
Well, expect it folks. Spencer is sure to see less double teams than Ware and actually led the squad in sacks over the second half of last season. Butler will likely steal some of his snaps, but that may just increase his efficiency.
8. Dez Bryant will have a solid, but not spectacular, rookie season.
800 yards and 6 TDs is a realistic expectation. He simply won’t see enough targets for much more. He’s starting the season as the third option, and even if (when) he overtakes Roy Williams, he still has to battle Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and the running game for looks.
9. Jason Williams will have a pick-six at some point this season, and he will do a backflip after he scores.
I just really want to see this. Williams promised me awhile ago he will do a backflip if he scores this season. Just don’t touch the ground, Jason.
10. David Buehler will be a top five kicker in terms of accuracy.
Now I’m just getting crazy. Honestly, I have no good reason to believe this will happen, but kickers’ performances vary so much from year to year that there’s really no good reason why it won’t happen, either.
Let’s hope Buehler is in the upper echelon of kickers. I’ve shown before that the difference between a 70 percent kicker and a 90 percent kicker is rather substantial.
11. Phil Costa will be starting at some point this season–and he’ll do well.
Let’s face it–the Cowboys’ offensive line is old, particularly in the interior. The big hogs inside have an average age of 31.7.
Left guard Kyle Kosier is already hurt, meaning Costa is one injury away from starting as of now. If Gurode goes down, I have a feeling the ‘Boys would turn to Costa over Kosier to replace him. Costa looked really good in the preseason, albeit against primarily second-teamers.
12. Bradie James will make the Pro Bowl.
It can sometimes be tough for a 3-4 inside linebacker to gain recognition. The outside backers get all the glory, but the guys inside are nearly just as vital.
For the Cowboys, James’ importance is severely under-appreciated. He’s on the field basically all the time, and he does everything really, really well. He’s shown improvement in pass coverage this preseason, and I think Coach Phillips may blitz him more than ever this year. If that’s the case, James should be able to put up all-around numbers that can come closer to matching his overall ability than ever before.
13. Mike Jenkins will haul in at least seven interceptions.
“Ladies and gentlemen, today we have Dean Martin and Jerry Lewis going to camp with us. Jerry tells the jokes. Dean sings the songs and gets the girls.”
- Coach Boone in ‘Remember the Titans’
Mike Jenkins and Terence Newman are the “Jerry and Dean” of the Cowboys (Yeah, Jenkins makes big-time plays and “gets the girls,” but Newman’s role is just as important). Without Newman’s coverage ability, Jenkins would never get challenged enough to secure seven picks.
And he will get seven picks.
By the way, I just realized that quote is really quite irrelevant to my point and makes for an awful analogy, but I’m deciding to keep it in because I like it.
14. The Cowboys will run less draws in 2010.
Dallas ran a draw 128 times last season, which comprised 30.0 percent of their overall running plays. In myultimate guide to Dallas Cowboys draws, I noted that the Cowboys averaged a full yard less on draws as compared to non-draws.
The numbers would seem to suggest that the ‘Boys aren’t a great draw-running team, but that’s simply not the case. Romo is as good as any quarterback in the league at faking the slant before handing off on draw plays, and the running backs all possess an adequate skill set to do well on them.
The problem came in the abundance of draws. The team simply dialed up the draw too often in 2010 and it subsequently limited its effectiveness. I think you’ll see the Cowboys run closer to 75 draws this season (particularly out of spread formations), with much better results.
15. Dallas will run more counters, screens, playaction passes, and rollouts.
Ready for some interesting stats?
- Felix Jones ran for 220 yards on 22 counters in 2009. For all the Redskins fans reading out there, that’s, like, 10.0 yards-per-carry. The team averaged 7.9 yards-per-carry altogether on counters last season.Here is my study on counters.
- The Cowboys threw a screen pass on just 7.1 percent of non-playaction passes, but that rate increased to 22.9 percent on playaction passes.
- In my ultimate guide to Dallas Cowboys playaction passes, I noted that 63.9 percent of playaction passes went to the right side of the field in ’09, compared to just 37.0 percent of non-playaction throws.
- Of the 83 playaction passes, only four, FOUR, were attempts of 20 yards or more. That is 4.8 percent of all pass plays. In comparison, the Cowboys threw the ball downfield 20 yards or more on 46 of the other 467 attempts, or 9.9 percent of all passes.
- The Cowboys ran only four (FOUR!) playaction passes all season with 1-4 yards-to-go, and just 18 with less than 10 yards-to-go (only 19.8 percent of all playaction passes).
- Dallas used designed rollouts less than once per game in 2009.
16. Strong side dives from “Double Tight Strong” will all but make their way out of the playbook.
They were fun while they lasted, weren’t they? Actually, they were awful.
Last season, the ‘Boys ran 116 plays from “Double Tight Strong,” 71.6 percent of which were strong side dives. That rate increased to 85.7 percent when Dallas motioned into the formation.
In my in-depth study on the formation, I made the following observations:
Weeks 1-5 (Dallas ran the formation just five times per game over the first four weeks, so defenses likely had yet to recognize it as a trend): 7.8 yards-per-carry
Weeks 6-17: 4.4 yards-per-carry, including just 3.2 YPC against all teams but Oakland
Weeks 1-17: Ran strong side dive out of the formation 83/116 times (71.6 percent), including an incredible 42/49 times (85.7 percent) when motioning into it.
The play has stuck around this year through the preseason, but I have a feeling it will die out. The only way it can become effective is if Garrett varies his play-calling from the formation. In fact, a high rate of dive plays could be worthwhile if the offense, at least once in awhile, faked the dive and went deep. That never happened in ’09, though.
17. The Cowboys will be just 4-4 on the road.
The schedule is tough for every NFC East team, but check out these road opponents: Washington, Houston, Minnesota, Green Bay, New York Giants, Indianapolis, Arizona, and Philadelphia. Even if they go 2-1 on the road against the division (a very difficult task), Dallas would still have to go 3-2 against the remaining opponents to be above .500.
Washington, Arizona, and even Philly late in the year are all very winnable, but Houston, Minny, Green Bay, New York, and Indy are all nightmare road games.
18. The Cowboys will get to the NFC Championship game, but lose to the Packers.
I picked Green Bay to win the Super Bowl, but let me be clear: I don’t think the Packers are a better team than the Cowboys. I do think they have a better chance of winning home field advantage, though, simply because of their division. The Cowboys will probably have to go at least 5-1 in the NFC East to have a shot at home field. That same record is much easier for Green Bay to attain in the NFC North.
If Dallas has to travel to Green Bay late in January, there’s no way they’ll be the favorite to win. If the Cowboys do end up winning home field advantage, my prediction may be different.
19. Wade Phillips will still be the Cowboys’ coach in 2011.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Wade Phillips is a Championship quality coach. He’s a gaudy 33-15 during his three years in Dallas. The component of the team which he monitors most closely, the defense, was ranked No. 2 in the NFL last season.
He’s just 1-2 in the playoffs with Dallas, but three games is hardly an adequate sample size to determine a coach’s worth. I am a big believer in giving coaches time to implement changes and multiple chances to win the ultimate prize, assuming all of the right signs are present.
For Phillips, the signs of greatness, like it or not, are very present.
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By the way, for all you 'Boys fans out there. . .
Pick up your 2011 "The Blonde Side" Calendar feat. the hottest Cowboys fans from around the country at www.TheBlondeSideStore.com.
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September 9, 2010 | Filed Under Dallas Cowboys, NFC East, NFL, Preview/Prediction | Comments Off
The Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints will battle it out tonight in the NFC Championship game rematch at the Superdome. What does this mean? Football is back, baby!
I kinda almost ran out of time to do my full preview, so here it is. My last-second preview (literally!).
Who will come out on top of each division:
AFC North
Baltimore*
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Outlook: With the additions of Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh on the offensive side of the ball, there's no way Joe Flacco doesn't have a stellar season under center. The only thing holding Baltimore back from making a Super Bowl trip is the devastating injuries to Ed Reed and Domonique Foxworth in the secondary.
AFC East
New York*
New England#
Miami
Buffalo
Outlook: Many people think the Jets are going to let everyone down, although it's not likely. I mean, the talent is most certainly there and the defense is back to top-tier, with the return of shutdown corner Darrelle Revis. Sanchez is only maturing with time and L.T. is anchoring the backfield. Arguably the best defense in the league, plus a more than capable offense equals victories.
AFC South
Indianapolis*
Houston#
Tennessee
Jacksonville
Outlook: There's an unwritten rule in the NFL that you can't bet against Peyton Manning, and I don't think it's right to break that rule. Past the Indianapolis Mannings, I believe Houston will make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history with a wild card berth. Chris Johnson will break 1,800 yards with 15 touchdowns for Tennessee's 9-7 team.
AFC West
San Diego*
Oakland
Denver
Kansas City
Yes, you read that correctly. Oakland will be a second-place team, thanks to the several injuries the Broncos have suffered during training camp/preseason and the sputtering in rebuilding that Kansas City has suffered. Philip Rivers' Chargers, despite not having Vincent Jackson to throw to, will once again take the division crown.
NFC North
Green Bay*
Minnesota#
Chicago
Detroit
Outlook: It's time for Aaron Rodgers to finally claim his spot among the elite. Rodgers' right arm will be the main reason why Green Bay takes the division, but the Packers also have a stellar defense and a great duo of receivers to throw to. Minnesota will take a wild card spot but there's no way Favre and the Vikes are able to repeat last year's performance, especially without Sidney Rice for the first six weeks of play.
NFC East
Dallas*
New York
Philadelphia
Washington
Outlook: Could this finally be Romo's year? I think it may be. With the addition of rookie Dez Bryant and last year's resurgent Miles Austin looking as strong as ever, Romo's offense could produce even better results on it's way to a division title.
McNabb and Shanahan aren't going to magically turn the Skins around on their own. Eli will fall just short of taking the G-Men back to the playoffs and Kevin Kolb will struggle in his first full season at the helm.
NFC South
New Orleans*
Atlanta#
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Outlook: Another one of those unwritten rules: it's not a very good idea going against the defending champions—or Drew Brees for that matter. It wont be quite as easy for the Saints this season because everyone will be bringing their A game to New Orleans, but that shouldn't stop them from taking the division away from Atlanta.
NFC West
Seattle*
San Francisco
Arizona
St. Louis
Outlook: So many people want to try and say San Francisco will be the breakout team and take the NFC West this season, but they really don't have a definite starting quarterback as of right now. It could be Alex Smith, it could be David Carr, it could be newly signed former Heisman winner Troy Smith.
Heck, it could even be former Ball State quarterback Nate Davis, who was cut two days ago, but later returned to the team's practice squad. I'll take the veteran Seattle Seahawks, who made some huge improvements via the draft and free agency, to capture the West instead.
Playoff Picture:
AFC
1. Colts
2. Ravens
3. Jets
4. Chargers
5. Patriots
6. Texans
NFC
1. Packers
2. Saints
3. Cowboys
4. Seahawks
5. Vikings
6. Falcons
Wild Card Round:
Jets defeat Texans
Patriots defeat Chargers
Cowboys defeat Falcons
Vikings defeat Seahawks
Divisional Round:
Colts defeat Patriots
Jets defeat Ravens
Packers defeat Vikings
Cowboys defeat Saints
Conference Championship:
Colts defeat Jets
Cowboys defeat Packers
Super Bowl:
Cowboys defeat Colts
*Tony Romo finally proves he can win, leading Dallas to its first Super Bowl appearance/victory since the 'Boys beat the Steelers in the 1995 Super Bowl.
SB MVP: Miles Austin
Regular season awards:
MVP: Chris Johnson
Offensive POY: Chris Johnson
Defensive POY: DeMarcus Ware
Comeback POY: Jay Cutler
Offensive ROY: Dez Bryant
Defensive ROY: Ndamukong Suh
Coach of the Year: Gary Kubiak
Breakout POY(s): Tashard Choice and Felix Jones
Ten BOLD Predictions for the season (in no particular order):
1. This year is finally Favre's final season (let's pray it is).
2. Sam Bradford throws more picks than TDs.
3. Adrian Peterson limits his fumbles and breaks even more tackles than last season.
4. Tim Tebow makes 6-7 starts at quarterback.
5. Mark Sanchez throws 20 touchdown passes—and 15 or less interceptions.
6. Michael Crabtree has a career year in San Fran.
7. Big Ben gets sacked 40-plus times, despite missing the first four games due to suspension.
8. Michael Turner's numbers continue to decrease in Atlanta.
9. Jake Delhomme revives career in Cleveland.
10. Despite losing starting job to Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs finishes the season with double digit TD totals.
Now that you know who is going to win the Super Bowl, I guess there's really no point in you watching this season, but enjoy it anyways, 'cause there may not be a 2011.
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September 8, 2010 | Filed Under Dallas Cowboys, MySanAntonio, NFC East, NFL, Rankings/List | Comments Off
Never in my lifetime have I ever associated the word “underrated” with the Dallas Cowboys. The team’s owner, Jerry Jones, epitomizes shrewd and excessiveness. Jones recently built a stadium worth more than many countries Gross Domestic Product with the cost going north of $1 billion dollars.
The Dallas Cowboys have five Super Bowl rings, many a number of hall of famers, one of the most recognizable brands in the world, can hold claim to having the guy who owns the record for most rushing yards in a career, and they are “America’s team.” If anything about the Cowboys screams underrated Jerry Jones is sure to bring attention to so that everyone and their families knows about it
But believe it or not, there are a few underrated players that play football for America’s team. These guys have flown under the radar for awhile but have been huge contributors to the Cowboys recent run of success. Yet with the underrated there also comes the overrated.
The Cowboys have had their fair share of overrated players throughout the years, hello Quincy Carter, and they have a few on the team now.
Welcome to the house of ratings where one may find their favorite Cowboys player.
Here is my list of the 5 most underrated and 5 most overrated Cowboys players, patent pending.
Begin Slideshow
September 8, 2010 | Filed Under Dallas Cowboys, Dez Bryant, Donovan McNabb, Doug Free, Football, Marion Barber III, NFC East, NFL, Preview/Prediction, Tony Romo | Comments Off
During the preseason, I formulated two separate articles called “What to Watch” and “DOs and DON’Ts for Dallas” as game previews for the upcoming contests. During the regular season, I will combine these two features into a single, more all-inclusive article known (solely to me) as a “Game Day Manifesto.” You’ll be able to find the “Manifesto” category under the “GameDay” tab above.
Also check back later in the week for a new feature called “Game Plan.” While the weekly “Manifesto” will contain some Xs and Os, the “Game Plan” will feature in-depth game strategy detailing how Dallas can win that week’s game and how they should go about doing it. There, you’ll find a lot of analysis of formations, personnel, play-calling, and so on.
Now on to this week’s Manifesto...
How will Dallas use Dez Bryant and what sort of impact will he have?
This is what every Cowboys fan in America wants to see. Will the Cowboys use Bryant as they would have implemented Patrick Crayton? Will Bryant play primarily in the slot, or will Miles Austin move inside when the Cowboys use three receivers?
Last season, Dallas utilized three receivers on 42 percent of all plays, good for just 25th-most in the league. That number will increase this year, but by how much? Will Bryant play 50 percent of the snaps Sunday night?
Hopefully Jason Garrett runs the ball out of three receiver sets so that Bryant’s presence doesn’t key the defense on a pass. I’ve already explained why Dallas should run the ball out of spread formations more often in general this season.
Who will return kicks and punts?
The Cowboys probably had punt returns in mind for Bryant when they drafted him, but that was before his high ankle sprain. Now, the favorite is probably fellow rookie Akwasi Owusu-Ansah. Owusu-Ansah looked explosive on returns in the preseason and has at least had some reps at both return spots.
At the very least, AOA will probably be back deep for kick returns. But will Dallas risk Bryant on punt returns? We’ll find out.
Will Redskins offensive tackles Jamaal Brown and Trent Williams be able to slow down DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer at all? Will Washington leave Chris Cooley or Fred Davis in on some passes to help them in protection?
A rookie left tackle and a right tackle who underperformed so much the New Orleans basically let him walk? To me, this is by far Dallas’ biggest advantage Sunday night. How in the world will Washington possibly slow down Ware and Spencer?
They could keep a tight end to help block, but their starter (Cooley) is probably one of the worst blocking tight ends in the NFL. I think it is more likely that Washington lines up in double-tight formations quite often so that they can let Cooley out in a route while Davis helps chip one of the Cowboys’ pass rushers.
Will Doug Free be able to contain Redskins linebacker Brian Orakpo?
I listed Orakpo as No. 39 (already) in my list of the NFL’s top 105 players. That may have been a little generous, but I do think he has that sort of talent. He had 11 sacks in his rookie season, including a club record four in one game.
He’s going to be a handful for Doug Free and a big-time test for the new left tackle. If the Cowboys can win at the point-of-attack, they will win the football game. That starts with Free on Orakpo.
Will Albert Haynesworth play?
There are reports that Haynesworth could be traded before Sunday, deactivated if he’s still on the Redskins and just benched even if he’s active. No matter what happens, it is advantageous for Dallas that he doesn’t play.
Yeah, he whines a lot and hasn’t really showed much effort this season, but he can still play. If he decides to turn it on (which he could very well do in an attempt to increase his trade-ability), he’s still one of the toughest men in the league to block.
How much will we see the dreaded “Double Tight Strong“?
The Cowboys lined up in the formation (below) 15 times this preseason, running a strong side dive out of it 13 of those plays (86.7 percent). Hopefully Garrett is just setting teams up for the regular season, but I have a bad feeling that’s not the case.
Last year, the Cowboys lined up in the formation 116 times, running a strong-side dive out 83 of the plays (71.6 percent), including an incredible 42/49 times (85.7 percent) when motioning into it.
This will be the biggest determiner of the future of Garrett’s play-calling. If we continue to see the same formation with the same strong side dive, we know nothing is going to change.
How will Jason Garrett distribute touches among the running backs?
Marion Barber is going to start, but Felix Jones should receive the most touches. He’s the most explosive running back on the team and is the best option for Dallas in regular first and second down scenarios. I’d also love to see Tashard Choice in short-yardage situations, particularly out of Wildcat, but I think you’ll still see Barber in the short-yardage role.
No matter how Garrett disperses the touches on Sunday night, though, let’s be sure not to judge him based solely on this game (as it relates to running back touches). Game-to-game, run-to-pass ratio is very dependent on game situations, meaning we won’t really get a good sense of how Garrett plans to employ each running back until, say, the fourth game.
With either Marc Colombo or Kyle Kosier suit up?
Neither player has practiced this week and, at this point, I’d call both unlikely. Kosier is certainly doubtful, while Colombo, who was supposed to be back by now, will probably be a true game-time decision.
The absence of both players hurts Dallas, particularly because their backups played so poorly in the preseason. Montrae Holland really struggled at guard, frequently getting called for false starts due to his slow feet. He needs to get off of the ball as quickly as possible to compensate for a lack of athleticism.
Meanwhile, newly-acquired swing tackle Alex Barron looked horrendous at right tackle. Second-year player Robert Brewster actually looked decent in his limited action on the right side, but it appears Barron will get the start if Colombo can’t go.
Will Andre Gurode be okay at guard if Dallas needs him?
The Cowboys have no problem making a double-switch on the offensive line if one of their starting guards goes down. In that scenario, Gurode would move to guard (where he played in the beginning of his career), and undrafted rookie free agent Phil Costa would play at center.
Costa played really well at center during the preseason, but I think I might take my chances with him at guard. Gurode will probably make the line calls even if he moves over to guard, but I’d feel more comfortable if Dallas didn’t have a starter out of position.
DOs and DON’Ts for Dallas
DO run right at linebacker London Fletcher
I’ll talk about this more in my upcoming Game Plan article, but Dallas would be smart to run right at Fletcher. I like Feltcher a lot, but he’s very undersized (just 5’10”), meaning Gurode and Leonard Davis should be able to manhandle him.
DON’T blitz too frequently
I talked about how Ware and Spencer should be able to get a ton of pressure on McNabb. Getting pressure with just four rushers is a huge advantage for a defense because it means they can sit back in zone and force the quarterback to make good reads and accurate throws, again and again and again. There aren’t very many quick scores to be had versus a Cover 2 defense.
In fact, the reason the Cowboys were able to dominate the Eagles last season was because they rarely had to blitz. They made McNabb beat them with his arm, and he couldn’t do it.
Even at age 33, McNabb can still beat you with his legs. He can also beat you deep with his arm. But can he consistently beat you underneath with his arm? I’m not so sure.
DO play Jason Williams at nickel linebacker
The options here are Williams, Keith Brooking, Michael Hamlin and Danny McCray. Hamlin and McCray have very little experience at the position (like, a few game reps), so they aren’t realistic options to me.
Contrary to popular opinion, Williams wasn’t that bad during the preseason. Behind Brooking, he was the team’s best nickel linebacker, and the old guy needs a break at some point.
DON’T game-plan at all for any quarterback other than Donovan McNabb
It looks like McNabb will play now, but the Redskins may still play it coy up until kickoff. For Dallas, there’s no reason to game-plan for anyone other than McNabb. If by some miracle he doesn’t play, you should be able to beat a Rex Grossman-led team whether you prepared for him or not.
DO throw the ball early and often
Not what you expected to hear? I actually support a pass/run ratio of about 65:35 (yes, you read that correctly). Of course, every game is different and plays should be called accordingly, but over the long haul, passing has shown to be the most important aspect of a football game and the one that is most closely linked to winning (by far).
I think Sunday night in particular is a good game for the Cowboys to come out passing. Washington was eighth last season in passing yards yielded per game, but a lot of that was due to the fact that they were losing in most ballgames. In terms of yards-per-attempt, the Redskins ranked in the middle of the pack: 16th.
Furthermore, their rush defense was actually better than advertised. They allowed only 4.9 yards-per-carry last season, good for eighth-best in the NFL.
The most important reason to come out passing, though, is that it could help jump start a stagnant Cowboys running game. We’ve all heard the familiar saying that “throwing sets up the run.” Perhaps that is true, but it goes both ways. Passing can certainly set up the run as well, and when the Redskins are forced to move back into Cover 2 because Miles Austin & Co. are beating their blitz, the big guys up front for Dallas should be able to maul the undersized Washington linebackers in the run game.
DON’T phase Dez Bryant into the game
Now is not the time to be conservative with Bryant. If a player is healthy enough to play, then he is healthy enough to play a lot. He’s either ready to go or he isn’t.
This isn’t the preseason anymore. This is an extremely difficult matchup, on the road, at night, in a nationally televised game, against a division opponent, on opening day. That’s a lot of commas.
DO spell DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer with Victor Butler
There’s no way Dallas can get away with playing Ware and Spencer as much as they did last season. Nearly 1,100 snaps for both players is ridiculous, but last season it was a necessity. Victor Butler was a promising rookie, but he wasn’t consistent enough, particularly against the run, for the ‘Boys to take one of their stud starting outside linebackers off of the field.
This year, Butler has proven he’s ready for the big show. He’s been absolutely sensational against both the run and the pass. Plus, he should have no problem getting past Washington’s offensive tackles.
When you combine Butler’s presence with that of Brandon Williams’, there’s no reason why either Ware or Spencer should play more than 1,000 snaps this season. Closer to 900 would be ideal.
DON’T try anything too risky.
Regular readers know I’m generally in favor of “risky” calls such as going for it on fourth down (a lot) and surprise onside kicks. There’s a right time and a wrong time for everything, though, and I actually think being a bit more conservative on Sunday night is the right move.
Now, I don’t mean they should call predictable plays or punt on 4th-and-1 in the opponent's territory, but taking the steps to ensure nothing “fluky” happens (i.e., quick scores, sudden changes in momentum, and so on) would do the Cowboys well. The reason is simple: They are the better team. If they have, let’s say, a 70 percent chance of winning this game, attempting a surprise onside kick would hold a negative level of return for Dallas. It could really only hurt, as opposed to the same scenario in a game where they are the clear underdog.
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September 8, 2010 | Filed Under Green Bay Packers, NFL, chuck cecil, chuck cecil coordinator, chuck cecil defensive coordinator, chuck cecil fired, chuck cecil hot seat, chuck cecil on the hot seat, chuck cecil possibly fired, chuck cecil tennessee titans, chuck cecil titans, chuck cecil titans defensive coordinator, tennessee titans defense, titans defense, titans defensive coordinator | Comments Off
During his playing days in the NFL, current Tennesse Titans Defensive Coordinator Chuck Cecil was regarded as one of the most vicious hitters in National Football League history. The October 11, 1993 issue of Sports Illustrated featured his picture and the question: “Is Chuck Cecil Too Vicious for the NFL?” on the cover.
During his days with the Green Bay Packers, Cecil earned the nickname “Scud” because of his hit-or-miss approach to tackling opponents. He often left his feet and led with his helmet, and much like the infamous missiles launched during the Gulf War – would occasionally miss completely or arrive late. However, whenever he made direct contact, devastation and human carnage were the result.
The hit-or-miss adjective could very well apply to the defensive unit Cecil leads today in Nashville. When Cecil was promoted from DBs Coach to Defensive Coordinator in the ’09 offseason, the Titans picked him over a few other, more experienced candidates, and the results weren’t pretty. Obviously criticism of Tennessee’s decision then arose.
By Paul M. Banks
Former Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz departed to take the head coaching job with the Detroit Lions, and Cecil inherited a top ten defense that returned every starter except the much talked about Albert Haynesworth. But the team slumped from 13-3 and a #1 seed in the AFC in ’08, to a 8-8 non-playoff qualifier in ’09. The Titans also surrendered 30+ points on five occasions. Cecil knows his defense needs to get much better; and soon. I recently had an exclusive conversation with him on the day of his College Football Hall of Fame induction.
I first asked if practicing every day against Chris Johnson, the most explosive back in all of football, and a 2,000 yard rusher last year can help improve the unit.
“I think it helps them respect the speed of the game a little more, the biggest difference between the college and the professional game is the hash marks and setting the edge. And what happens in college with the hash marks being so close to the sidelines, is you can out-run the contain. In the NFL, you should not be able to out-run the contain but Chris can do that and that’s what sets him apart. He actually out-runs the contain a lot of the time, and for us it helps us set a better edge by practicing against a guy like that. In college, if you have someone who is a lot faster than somebody else you have a lot longer time to outrun the edge. In the NFL, you don’t have that because the ball is always in the middle of the field basically,” he said.
An interesting aspect of the game that few are familiar with.
This year, Cecil is breaking in new starters in all three position groups, but returns former Pro Bowlers at both safety positions in Chris Hope and Michael Griffin. However, both players, especially Griffin, slumped badly last year.
Maybe there’s new hope in defensive end Derrick Morgan, the team’s first round draft pick this April, and a highly touted prospect that no one expected to still be on the board when Tennessee was picking.
“It was kind of disappointing because he was hurt for most of the OTAs, but we expect a lot out of him, he’s a bright kid. Schematically he’s picked it up, I think he’s well suited for what we do with our nine technique, the proof is in the pudding so we’ll have to wait and see, I really don’t see him being a dominant player this year, I don’t think that’s realistic, but I think as he grows and matures in the league and learns about blocks and things of that nature he’ll just continue to be a better player,” Cecil said of Morgan.
Last year, the main issue was replacing Haynesworth, this year it’s about filling the void of another departed defensive end, Kyle Vanden Bosch. But it’s his emotional leadership, and his role as champion of the conditioning program that will be the hardest to replace.
“Kyle is not a guy that you replace, I been doing this for 30 years as a player, a coach, I’ve never encountered a Kyle Vanden Bosch, he’s wired different than anyone you’ve ever been around, but the thing that Kyle brought to the team, he’s already showed that example, laid that down and explained to the younger guys not by mouth, but by action, what it is to be a professional. How do you go about your daily routine to prepare for Sunday? And he’s already done that routine for us, and what Detroit paid for when they bought him in free agency was for him to come to Detroit and to show them how to be a professional on defense.
He’s still an above average player, his Pro Bowl years may be behind him, but maybe playing next to Ndamukong Suh may open some wholes there, but that’s another reason they got him. As a coach, your words and actions only go so far. The best teacher for a player is a fellow player and what happens in the locker room and that’s the dynamic that Kyle brings for Detroit,” Cecil said.
Paul M. Banks is President and CEO of The Sports Bank.net , a Midwest focused webzine. He is also a regular contributor to Chicago Now, the Chicago Tribune’s blog network, Walter Football.com, the Washington Times Communities, Yardbarker Network, and Fox Sports.com
You can follow him on Twitter @thesportsbank and @bigtenguru
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September 8, 2010 | Filed Under Albert Haynesworth, Dallas Cowboys, Dez Bryant, Donovan McNabb, NFC East, NFL, Preview/Prediction, Tony Romo, Wade Phillips | Comments Off
The Dallas Cowboys meet up with the Washington Redskins on Sunday to kick off the 2010 season. According to the latest NFL odds, you will find Dallas -3.5 over Washington with a total set of 40 points.
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones built a $1.2 billion stadium, what many feel is the best in the world. Super Bowl XLV will be played in Cowboys Stadium, and Jones would love nothing more than to see his team win it on their home turf.
With 20-of-22 starters back from a team that went 10-6 last year, Dallas has as good a shot as any to get the job done.
Certainly, Dallas will not want to have to win on the road in the playoffs to reach their goal, because we all saw how well that worked out last year when they were throttled at Minnesota.
The Vikings, Packers, and Saints are the other three consensus Super Bowl contenders, and it would be tough to win at any of them. But to get home-field advantage, they’ll first have to win a very stacked NFC East that features the Redskins, Giants, and Eagles, along with having to play the NFC North and the AFC South this season.
The Cowboys offense ranked No. 2 in the league last year, and now they’ve added another weapon in Dez Bryant, who many are comparing to Michael Irvin and Randy Moss when they came into the league.
Bryant will team up with Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Roy Williams to catch passes from Tony Romo. Receivers coach Ray Sherman has stated that this is potentially the best group of wide receivers he has ever had. And you can’t take that lightly considering he has coached with Jerry Rice in San Francisco, Javon Walker and Donald Driver in Green Bay, and Randy Moss, Chris Carter, and Jake Reed in Minnesota.
Dallas will need to wreak more havoc on defense if they are going to take the next step.
They can’t waste the talent they have rushing the passer in DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer. This is a unit that didn’t allow many points last year, but one that also didn’t get enough deflections in the secondary. More interceptions and more sacks are a necessity, so look for the Cowboys to unleash the hounds a little more this year.
Washington would love nothing more than to hand Dallas a loss in their opener. Certainly, Donovan McNabb struggled against this team last year but he also has had his fair share of wins over “America’s Team.”
New head coach Mike Shanahan brings this team a veteran leader that knows what it takes to win a Super Bowl. New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has implemented the west coast system, and new defensive coordinator Jim Haslett brings his 3-4 scheme to the table.
The team has appeared to put the Albert Haynesworth issue behind them, and he should be ready to lead a defense that was certainly underrated last season.
The biggest concerns are on offense, where McNabb sprained an ankle in the preseason which forced him to miss the final two games. It hurt his chemistry with Santana Moss, Joey Galloway, Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, and Chris Cooley, who figure to be the ones catching balls from McNabb this year.
The No. 1 running back is Clinton Portis for a seventh straight year, but Larry Johnson should see his fair share of carries after a solid preseason.
Dallas is 24-12 against Washington since 1992, and they are 22-14 against the spread during that time. The under is 19-15 in those 34 games as well. But Washington does own a .500 record in 18 home meetings with the Cowboys since 1992, though Dallas has won their last two trips to the Redskins.
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September 8, 2010 | Filed Under NFL, New Orleans Saints, Saints, dome patrol, dome patrol new orleans, new orleans saints linebackers, pat swilling, pat swilling hall of fame, pat swilling new orleans, pat swilling new orleans saints, pat swilling representative, pat swilling saints, saints dome patrol, the dome patrol | Comments Off
Without a doubt, there’s a huge connection between football and politics. Numerous former football players have gone on to careers as politicians. On a national level, every football player turned career politician has been a Republican. Names like Steve Largent, Jack Kemp, J.J. Watts, Lynn Swann among others come to mind. There’s a lot work in that trend; especially the Social Darwinism of football as an ethos replicating itself in the basic weltanschauung of the GOP.
But that’s another topic for another time. I could write 5,000 words on that topic before even exhaling. In 2006, Heath Shuler (despite his obvious social conservatism) became the first football player turned Democrat to win a national office. Although John Edwards, cut from the team at Clemson, came close.
There have been some successful ex-football players to win office as Dems at the state and local level, including former New Orleans Saints All-Pro Pat Swilling, who served in the Louisiana state legislature.
I had an exclusive with Swilling on the day of his induction into the College Football Hall of Fame.
By Paul M. Banks
“I’m not surprised that athletes run on the Republican ticket. You look at Oklahoma’s J.J. Watts, I think there’s room, there’s an easier route to run as a Republican for an athlete, but I think to identify with Republicanism as an athlete, it’s kind of difficult for most of us,” Swilling told me.
And that’s very true, because there are many exceedingly backward positions on issues of race and class within the GOP. And these stances aren’t exactly in line with the interests of many athletes.
“I’ve had conversation with people about running on the Republican ticket because the Republicans are always looking for strong leaders and people to run on their ticket, but I’m a Democrat through and through. Mom and Dad were. I am, I always will be, I can never run on that ticket, never.
I know people say don’t ever say never, but it’s not me. I believe in the Democrats and what we’re trying to do in moving this country forward,” he continued.
Today Swilling, a five time Pro-Bowler and the 1991 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, is a real estate developer in New Orleans, but he has the itch to one day run again.
“I’ve been working on trying to bring back retail development in our city, that’s what I do,” Swilling said.
“There’s going to be an opportunity to get back into politics one of these days. I still have the aspirations, I still like to be involved, I feel have something to bring to the table as a leader that can help our city. I’ve done it once, I definitely think at some point in time I want to be involved in the political system again, because it’s needed in Louisiana,” he continued.
Charisma is a key component for success in politics, and Swilling certainly has that. Especially in 1992 when he, and his fellow Saints Linebackers Rickey Jackson, Vaughn Johnson, and Sam Mills combined to form the “Dome Patrol,” one of the most feared position groups in NFL history. All four made the Pro Bowl and led the league in quarterback sacks.
Swilling next told me how the “Dome Patrol’s” origins…
“Jim Mora Jr., Coach Mora’s son, had a relationship with the Stoccos brothers, which is a poster company, and Sam Mills got us all together and we decided we’re going to shoot this poster of our linebacker crew, and we pondered a lot of different stuff, bayou this, bayou that and then I think Mora Jr said let’s do something about the dome, protecting the dome, the dome patrol, we looked around and said let’s do it. We shot it in fatigues and it just grew overnight, and I was at a place the other night and it said the “dome patrol drink.” It’s all over New Orleans, and we are as beloved today as when we played.”
And that charisma and brand name awareness persists today.
“We want to get some more made, but I tell ya we could sell them in Louisiana all day long, because of the Saints’ popularity. We did an autograph session the other day and people asked how can we buy this poster? So we’re going to figure out how to ressurect the poster. Stoccos is out of business and they have the rights so we’re working on it,” Swilling said.
Written by Paul M. Banks, President and CEO of The Sports Bank.net , a Midwest focused webzine. He is also a regular contributor to Chicago Now, the Chicago Tribune’s blog network, Walter Football.com, the Washington Times Communities, Yardbarker Network, and Fox Sports.com
You can follow him on Twitter @thesportsbank and @bigtenguru
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September 7, 2010 | Filed Under Chris Fowler, Heisman, Heisman Trust, Matt Leinart, NFL, Pac 10, Reggie Bush, Saints, Vince Young, Yahoo Sports, college football, vacate | Comments Off
USC has already returned the trophy to the original sender, as part of the disassociation process. As far as the school is concerned, old what’s-his-face only spent one year in the program, and didn’t win any awards or honors. Any unfinished trophy business is now strictly between player No. 25 of the New Orleans Saints and the Heisman Trust, with absolutely no connection to the institution.
September 7, 2010 | Filed Under Detroit Lions, Jahvid Best, Jake Delhomme, Jason Hanson, LaDanian Tomlinson, Mario Williams, Matt Leinart, Matthew Stafford, NFL, NFL Draft, Reggie Bush, calvin johnson, detroit lions suh, lions suh, ndamukong suh, ndamukong suh detroit lions, ryan matthews | Comments Off
Ndamukong Suh was trending over the weekend on Yahoo! for his hit on Jake Delhomme that garnered him a 7,500 dollar fine. As the second overall selection in this year’s NFL draft, there is every indication that the Detroit Lions’ brass made the right move. The franchise is building up its stable of high draft picks that are sure to make a major impact during the upcoming season including Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Jahvid Best.
By Patrick Herbert
At six feet four inches and over three hundred pounds, Suh still possesses stellar mobility with his uncanny lateral movement. He can also rush the quarterback simply by running over blockers and pushing them deep in the backfield. This should prove extremely beneficial in the 3-4 defense.
There is less of a learning curve at the defensive end position than some others in the NFL. Teams can waste millions of dollars on top picks while they sit on the bench and learn systems. The Cardinals would certainly like to have the Matt Leinart pick back. Just like in every interview scenario following a selection, I am sure they said he had a tremendous upside with a lot of potential.
He did, in a way.
There was potential to blow his time and money partying and playing beer pong. On the other extreme side when it comes to draft picks, Suh can step in and make an immediate impact on the field.
The 2006 draft produced Mario Williams as the first selection. This product of North Carolina State was not the popular choice for the fans of the Houston Texans. They wanted to see Reggie Bush in their uniform. He was the sexier pick because he was showcased at a powerhouse University and offensive players are usually in the spotlight more.
Williams turned out to be the better pick thus far. He is the team’s all-time leader in sacks with nearly forty and was arguably the best defensive lineman in 2007. This defensive end was a pro bowl player the last two seasons as well. This is evidence that Suh-as a defensive tackle- is the right choice for the Lions.
Matthew Stafford already possesses numerous weapons on the offensive side of the ball: Best, Burleson, and Calvin Johnson will make life easier with their play making ability. It is of the utmost importance to have fresh legs at the running back position. Fans have seen the precipitous decline of LaDanian Tomlinson’s production. That is why the Chargers feel comfortable moving forward with Ryan Matthews out of Fresno State. Burleson and Johnson provide opportunities for Stafford to pad his stats with their ability to gain yards after the catch.
Kyle Vanden Bosch, defensive end, will make Suh’s transition to Sundays easier. As a fellow alumnus of the University of Nebraska, he can take Suh under his wing and demonstrate the work ethic and routines that have made him a successful veteran. One thing is always certain for the Lions, Jason Hanson will be kicking the ball through the uprights. Another is a very probable outcome: Ndamukong Suh will be a very productive pro defensive lineman who is deserved of the second overall selection.
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September 7, 2010 | Filed Under Dallas Cowboys, NFC East, NFL, Opinion | Comments Off
According to the ranting Chicago Bears defensive lineman-turned-talking head Dan Hampton, the Dallas Cowboys "think they are Clint Eastwood, but are more the Brokeback variety, if you know what I mean."
I will leave the homophobic lamentations to those who worry over such things and instead focus on the implication and the meathead who made it.
Because they are a team of glitz and glamor, many through the years have dubbed the Cowboys as soft. It is and always has been a convenient label...and a crock of (human waste).
In the NFL, soft teams don't often play in Super Bowls. The Cowboys have played in eight, which is more than any other team. Soft teams surely do not win Super Bowls. The Cowboys have won five, a number only the Steelers have surpassed. Soft teams don't feature someone nicknamed the Manster (half-man, half-monster).
Speaking of Randy White, does anyone remember when he ripped Dan Hampton's helmet off his head and bitch-slapped him with it? I suspect, though White's age is now three years beyond the No. 54 he wore on his jersey, he could still whip Hampton without getting winded. For that matter, Bob Lilly, who is only three years shy of his jersey No. 74, could probably give the overrated lineman a whupping, as well.
Or, maybe Hampton would prefer to discuss toughness with Jay Ratliff or Marc Colombo...or Marion Barber, for that matter.
Hampton is just a Cowboy-hater. He always has been.
He also said he would like to be able to buy the Cowboys for what they are worth, and sell them for what they think they are worth.
Well, who wouldn't want to buy that team for what it is worth? That would mean you were a billionaire and didn't have to sell yourself to the highest bidder to do something you are ill-equipped to do. It would mean you didn't have to try to remember to be coherent while ranting on TV for a few bucks and a mess of pottage.
Obviously, Hampton thinks the Cowboys are soft and overrated. He also thinks that they overrate themselves. I am not exactly sure what hard factual information he gathered to help him reach that conclusion. I am sure his words were the product of a purely unbiased, analytical mind. I am confident he has empirical evidence to support his thesis.
Wait. No, I'm not. I just think he is a juvenile brat with a middle school mentality who could not resist the urge to try to be witty and funny in the presence of adults. I can appreciate that. I was 13 once, too.
The laugh-a-minute wit quickly followed his Cowboy trashing with the remark that the Minnesota Vikings should "hit New Orleans like Katrina."
If you are in a Minneapolis bar, that is funny stuff. If you are a professional football analyst on national TV, it is kind of stupid at best. Besides, your witticism carries a lot less punch when you have to follow it up with your "sincerest apology."
I guess Hampton never read Broadcasting for Dummies. Or, maybe he did.
Stay tuned. They may let him talk some more. Should be entertaining, if a little ignorant, insensitive, and uninformed.
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