Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: Week 1 Ultimate Game Preview

During the preseason, I formulated two separate articles called “What to Watch” and “DOs and DON’Ts for Dallas” as game previews for the upcoming contests.  During the regular season, I will combine these two features into a single, more all-inclusive article known (solely to me) as a “Game Day Manifesto.”  You’ll be able to find the “Manifesto” category under the “GameDay” tab above.

Also check back later in the week for a new feature called “Game Plan.”  While the weekly “Manifesto” will contain some Xs and Os, the “Game Plan” will feature in-depth game strategy detailing how Dallas can win that week’s game and how they should go about doing it.  There, you’ll find a lot of analysis of formations, personnel, play-calling, and so on.

Now on to this week’s Manifesto...

How will Dallas use Dez Bryant and what sort of impact will he have?

This is what every Cowboys fan in America wants to see.  Will the Cowboys use Bryant as they would have implemented Patrick Crayton?  Will Bryant play primarily in the slot, or will Miles Austin move inside when the Cowboys use three receivers?

Last season, Dallas utilized three receivers on 42 percent of all plays, good for just 25th-most in the league.  That number will increase this year, but by how much?  Will Bryant play 50 percent of the snaps Sunday night?

Hopefully Jason Garrett runs the ball out of three receiver sets so that Bryant’s presence doesn’t key the defense on a pass.  I’ve already explained why Dallas should run the ball out of spread formations more often in general this season.

Who will return kicks and punts?

The Cowboys probably had punt returns in mind for Bryant when they drafted him, but that was before his high ankle sprain.  Now, the favorite is probably fellow rookie Akwasi Owusu-Ansah.  Owusu-Ansah looked explosive on returns in the preseason and has at least had some reps at both return spots.

At the very least, AOA will probably be back deep for kick returns.  But will Dallas risk Bryant on punt returns?  We’ll find out.

Will Redskins offensive tackles Jamaal Brown and Trent Williams be able to slow down DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer at all?  Will Washington leave Chris Cooley or Fred Davis in on some passes to help them in protection?

A rookie left tackle and a right tackle who underperformed so much the New Orleans basically let him walk? To me, this is by far Dallas’ biggest advantage Sunday night. How in the world will Washington possibly slow down Ware and Spencer?

They could keep a tight end to help block, but their starter (Cooley) is probably one of the worst blocking tight ends in the NFL.  I think it is more likely that Washington lines up in double-tight formations quite often so that they can let Cooley out in a route while Davis helps chip one of the Cowboys’ pass rushers.

Will Doug Free be able to contain Redskins linebacker Brian Orakpo?

I listed Orakpo as No. 39 (already) in my list of the NFL’s top 105 players.  That may have been a little generous, but I do think he has that sort of talent.  He had 11 sacks in his rookie season, including a club record four in one game.

He’s going to be a handful for Doug Free and a big-time test for the new left tackle.  If the Cowboys can win at the point-of-attack, they will win the football game.  That starts with Free on Orakpo.

Will Albert Haynesworth play?

There are reports that Haynesworth could be traded before Sunday, deactivated if he’s still on the Redskins and just benched even if he’s active.  No matter what happens, it is advantageous for Dallas that he doesn’t play.

Yeah, he whines a lot and hasn’t really showed much effort this season, but he can still play.  If he decides to turn it on (which he could very well do in an attempt to increase his trade-ability), he’s still one of the toughest men in the league to block.

How much will we see the dreaded “Double Tight Strong“?

The Cowboys lined up in the formation (below) 15 times this preseason, running a strong side dive out of it 13 of those plays (86.7 percent).  Hopefully Garrett is just setting teams up for the regular season, but I have a bad feeling that’s not the case.

Last year, the Cowboys lined up in the formation 116 times, running a strong-side dive out 83 of the plays (71.6 percent), including an incredible 42/49 times (85.7 percent) when motioning into it.

This will be the biggest determiner of the future of Garrett’s play-calling.  If we continue to see the same formation with the same strong side dive, we know nothing is going to change.

How will Jason Garrett distribute touches among the running backs?

Marion Barber is going to start, but Felix Jones should receive the most touches.  He’s the most explosive running back on the team and is the best option for Dallas in regular first and second down scenarios.  I’d also love to see Tashard Choice in short-yardage situations, particularly out of Wildcat, but I think you’ll still see Barber in the short-yardage role.

No matter how Garrett disperses the touches on Sunday night, though, let’s be sure not to judge him based solely on this game (as it relates to running back touches). Game-to-game, run-to-pass ratio is very dependent on game situations, meaning we won’t really get a good sense of how Garrett plans to employ each running back until, say, the fourth game.

With either Marc Colombo or Kyle Kosier suit up?

Neither player has practiced this week and, at this point, I’d call both unlikely.  Kosier is certainly doubtful, while Colombo, who was supposed to be back by now, will probably be a true game-time decision.

The absence of both players hurts Dallas, particularly because their backups played so poorly in the preseason.  Montrae Holland really struggled at guard, frequently getting called for false starts due to his slow feet. He needs to get off of the ball as quickly as possible to compensate for a lack of athleticism.

Meanwhile, newly-acquired swing tackle Alex Barron looked horrendous at right tackle. Second-year player Robert Brewster actually looked decent in his limited action on the right side, but it appears Barron will get the start if Colombo can’t go.

Will Andre Gurode be okay at guard if Dallas needs him?

The Cowboys have no problem making a double-switch on the offensive line if one of their starting guards goes down.  In that scenario, Gurode would move to guard (where he played in the beginning of his career), and undrafted rookie free agent Phil Costa would play at center.

Costa played really well at center during the preseason, but I think I might take my chances with him at guard.  Gurode will probably make the line calls even if he moves over to guard, but I’d feel more comfortable if Dallas didn’t have a starter out of position.

DOs and DON’Ts for Dallas

DO run right at linebacker London Fletcher

I’ll talk about this more in my upcoming Game Plan article, but Dallas would be smart to run right at Fletcher.  I like Feltcher a lot, but he’s very undersized (just 5’10”), meaning Gurode and Leonard Davis should be able to manhandle him.

DON’T blitz too frequently

I talked about how Ware and Spencer should be able to get a ton of pressure on McNabb. Getting pressure with just four rushers is a huge advantage for a defense because it means they can sit back in zone and force the quarterback to make good reads and accurate throws, again and again and again.  There aren’t very many quick scores to be had versus a Cover 2 defense.

In fact, the reason the Cowboys were able to dominate the Eagles last season was because they rarely had to blitz.  They made McNabb beat them with his arm, and he couldn’t do it.

Even at age 33, McNabb can still beat you with his legs.  He can also beat you deep with his arm.  But can he consistently beat you underneath with his arm?  I’m not so sure.

DO play Jason Williams at nickel linebacker

The options here are Williams, Keith Brooking, Michael Hamlin and Danny McCray. Hamlin and McCray have very little experience at the position (like, a few game reps), so they aren’t realistic options to me.

Contrary to popular opinion, Williams wasn’t that bad during the preseason.  Behind Brooking, he was the team’s best nickel linebacker, and the old guy needs a break at some point.

DON’T game-plan at all for any quarterback other than Donovan McNabb

It looks like McNabb will play now, but the Redskins may still play it coy up until kickoff. For Dallas, there’s no reason to game-plan for anyone other than McNabb.  If by some miracle he doesn’t play, you should be able to beat a Rex Grossman-led team whether you prepared for him or not.

DO throw the ball early and often

Not what you expected to hear?  I actually support a pass/run ratio of about 65:35 (yes, you read that correctly).  Of course, every game is different and plays should be called accordingly, but over the long haul, passing has shown to be the most important aspect of a football game and the one that is most closely linked to winning (by far).

I think Sunday night in particular is a good game for the Cowboys to come out passing. Washington was eighth last season in passing yards yielded per game, but a lot of that was due to the fact that they were losing in most ballgames.  In terms of yards-per-attempt, the Redskins ranked in the middle of the pack: 16th.

Furthermore, their rush defense was actually better than advertised.  They allowed only 4.9 yards-per-carry last season, good for eighth-best in the NFL.

The most important reason to come out passing, though, is that it could help jump start a stagnant Cowboys running game.  We’ve all heard the familiar saying that “throwing sets up the run.”  Perhaps that is true, but it goes both ways.  Passing can certainly set up the run as well, and when the Redskins are forced to move back into Cover 2 because Miles Austin & Co. are beating their blitz, the big guys up front for Dallas should be able to maul the undersized Washington linebackers in the run game.

DON’T phase Dez Bryant into the game

Now is not the time to be conservative with Bryant.  If a player is healthy enough to play, then he is healthy enough to play a lot.  He’s either ready to go or he isn’t.

This isn’t the preseason anymore.  This is an extremely difficult matchup, on the road, at night, in a nationally televised game, against a division opponent, on opening day.  That’s a lot of commas.

DO spell DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer with Victor Butler

There’s no way Dallas can get away with playing Ware and Spencer as much as they did last season.  Nearly 1,100 snaps for both players is ridiculous, but last season it was a necessity.  Victor Butler was a promising rookie, but he wasn’t consistent enough, particularly against the run, for the ‘Boys to take one of their stud starting outside linebackers off of the field.

This year, Butler has proven he’s ready for the big show.  He’s been absolutely sensational against both the run and the pass.  Plus, he should have no problem getting past Washington’s offensive tackles.

When you combine Butler’s presence with that of Brandon Williams’, there’s no reason why either Ware or Spencer should play more than 1,000 snaps this season. Closer to 900 would be ideal.

DON’T try anything too risky.

Regular readers know I’m generally in favor of “risky” calls such as going for it on fourth down (a lot) and surprise onside kicks.  There’s a right time and a wrong time for everything, though, and I actually think being a bit more conservative on Sunday night is the right move.

Now, I don’t mean they should call predictable plays or punt on 4th-and-1 in the opponent's territory, but taking the steps to ensure nothing “fluky” happens (i.e., quick scores, sudden changes in momentum, and so on) would do the Cowboys well.  The reason is simple: They are the better team.  If they have, let’s say, a 70 percent chance of winning this game, attempting a surprise onside kick would hold a negative level of return for Dallas.  It could really only hurt, as opposed to the same scenario in a game where they are the clear underdog.

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2010 NFL Week One Power Rankings, Final Season Predictions

Every Tuesday I will be posting my NFL Power Rankings.  Remember that these aren’t a projection of how teams will finish, but rather a list of where they are as of right now.

At the bottom of this particular set of power rankings are my predictions for how the season will turn out.  Remember that I do not subscribe to the theory that 50 percent of playoff teams from one year must miss the tournament the next.  That sort of thinking is no better than choosing a coin to come up heads simply because it has been tails 10 straight tosses (actually, it’s worse).

Yesterday, I also posted my 2010 fantasy football predictions.  Be sure to check back tomorrow for my bold Cowboys-only predictions.

Week One Power Rankings 

1. New Orleans Saints

Until someone takes them down, New Orleans is the top dog.   They are explosive on offense, make plays on defense, and have one hell of a coach.  Expect a huge season from Reggie Bush.

2. Dallas Cowboys

A home Super Bowl?   Dallas is perhaps the league’s most talented team, but the Cowboys have to show they can step up when expectations are through the roof.

3. Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers is the real deal.  If the Packers’ two-year old 3-4 defense gels this season, watch out.  This could be the Cowboys’ toughest opponent all year.

4. Indianapolis Colts

I don’t really like the Colts in 2010, but with Peyton Manning at quarterback, they are always going to be in the hunt.  They need to get the running game on track.

5. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens always draft well, but now they finally brought in a few play-making wide receivers to aid Joe Flacco.  If the offense can put up top-five points, they will be nearly impossible to beat, even with question marks at safety.

6. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are the Cowboys of the AFC: loaded with talent but yet to take that next step.

7. Minnesota Vikings

Brett Favre may be the most annoying player in the NFL right now.  It will hurt him a lot to not have Sidney Rice the first half of the season.

8. Houston Texans

Yes, the Houston Texans at No. 8.  This team has less holes than you might think.  If they can get even average play from their secondary (which is a big ‘if’), this team will be in the playoffs.

9. New York Jets

The Jets are this year’s sexy Super Bowl pick, but let’s slow down a bit.   While their defense is ridiculous, this is still a team with a second-year quarterback.

10. New England Patriots

The door may have closed for New England. Coach Belichick has had success with veterans in the past, but at a certain point you need youth.  They are only this high because of one man: Mr. Gisele Bundchen.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers

Even with Big Ben suspended for four games, the Steelers are a good (not great) football team.  Dennis Dixon can hold down the fort for the first month of the season, and their defense will be much better than in ’09.

12. San Francisco 49ers

The Niners have been close to breaking out for a couple of years now.  The transition to a spread offense will help them immensely, although they won’t be in it as much as they were at the end of last season.  Still, they have to win a lot of close games because they don’t have much explosion on offense.

13. Cincinnati Bengals

I’ve come around a little on Cincy since my offseason power rankings, but like their most vocal player, they are too streaky.  Could they make the playoffs?  Yes. Will they advance far in them?  No.

14. Miami Dolphins

Chad Henne has the big arm necessary to get Brandon Marshall the ball.  This team will take big strides this season.

15. New York Giants

The Giants’ defense soured on them last season, yielding 40+ points in 10 games.  They made an obvious attempt to improve it through the draft, and they are one of a handful of teams in the NFC who confuse the hell out of me.

16. Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan will rebound in 2010, and the addition of cornerback Dunta Robinson will really help Atlanta.

17. Tennessee Titans

The Titans came on strong over the last half of the ’09 season, but they simply don’t have many weapons on offense other than Chris Johnson.  Their defense will keep them in games, but that can only take a team so far.

18. Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback Kevin Kolb is obviously the key to Philly’s success.  I think he will put up pretty big numbers (including in the interception category).

19. Oakland Raiders

Mark it down: the Raiders will contend for the AFC West title.  The defense is solid, and Jason Campbell is light-years ahead of JaMarcus Russell.

20. Chicago Bears

New Bears' offensive coordinator Mike Martz always makes his offense perform better, but it is usually at the cost of the success of the defense.

21. Washington Redskins

A lot of people think the acquisition of Donovan McNabb will make Washington competitive again.  I don’t.

22. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are a sleeper in what could be a suddenly competitive AFC West.  They have a solid quarterback and a rejuvenated rushing attack.

23. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers’ defense is pretty awful, and their only big-play threat on offense is constantly double-teamed.

24. Denver Broncos

What is coach Josh McDaniels’ strategy in Denver?   If it is to alienate and rid himself of the team’s best players, then he should have won Coach of the Year last season.

25. Arizona Cardinals

The drop-off from Kurt Warner to Derek Anderson is huge.  Beanie Wells will have a monster season and the Cards are aided by playing in the NFC West, but will it be enough?

26. Detroit Lions

The Lions are finally on the right track.  After securing the offensive building blocks of the future, they are now concentrating on the defense.

27. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have finally secured their quarterback of the future.  Oh, now wait. . .

28. Jacksonville Jaguars

David Garrard is a stable quarterback and MJD is a beast, but the Jags’ defense (particularly their pass-rush) is atrocious.

29. Tampa Bay Bucs

The Bucs’ talent may actually be the worst team in the league, but at least they have Josh Freeman.

30. Cleveland Browns

And the award for the most awkward quarterback in the NFL goes to. . . .for the seventh straight year, Jake Delhomme!

31. St. Louis Rams

The Rams are probably worse than the Bills, but at least Sam Bradford gives fans hope.

32. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have a ton of holes on both offense and defense, so their first-rounder was a player at arguably their strongest position. Makes sense.

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Final Standings Predictions

NFC
East
1.  Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
2.  New York Giants (9-7)
3.  Philadelphia Eagles (8-8)
4.  Washington Redskins (7-9)

North
1.  Green Bay Packers (12-4)
2.  Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
3.  Chicago Bears (7-9)
4.  Detroit Lions (6-10)

South
1.  New Orleans Saints (11-5)
2.  Atlanta Falcons (9-7)
3.  Carolina Panthers (5-11)
4.  Tampa Bay Bucs (3-13)

West
1.  San Francisco 49ers (9-7)
2.  Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
3.  Seattle Seahawks (6-10)
4.  St. Louis Rams (2-14)

AFC
East
1. New York Jets (11-5)
2. Miami Dolphins (10-6)
3. New England Patriots (9-7)
4. Buffalo Bills (1-15)

North
1. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)
4. Cleveland Browns (4-12)

South
1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
2. Houston Texans (9-7)
3. Tennessee Titans (8-8)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

West
1. San Diego Chargers (11-5)
2. Oakland Raiders (10-6)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
4. Denver Broncos (7-9)

NFC Playoffs
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. New Orleans Saints
4. San Francisco 49ers
5. Minnesota Vikings
6. New York Giants

New Orleans over New York
Minnesota over San Francisco

Green Bay over Minnesota
Dallas over New Orleans

Green Bay over Dallas

AFC Playoffs
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. San Diego Chargers
4. New York Jets
5. Miami Dolphins
6. Oakland Raiders

San Diego over Oakland
Miami over New York

Indianapolis over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego

Baltimore over Indianapolis

Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay 27, Baltimore 21

MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Coach of the Year:  Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Eric Berry, Kansas City Chiefs

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Dallas Cowboys Injury Report: Week 1

While it seemed a few weeks ago that the Cowboys would be without several starters for their season debut, every day it looks more like they'll be close to full strength.

Safety Gerald Sensabaugh, who missed the last two preseason games because of a sprained shoulder, has said that he was going to play. Sensabaugh proved to be a tough guy having missed no time after breaking his thumb last season.

Sensabaugh said he tested his shoulder, although the team doctors told him not to in practice. If Sensabaugh starts that will put Mike Hamlin on special teams for the game on Sunday night against the Redskins.

Receiver Dez Bryant has finally been cleared to play as Wade Phillips was quoted on the Cowboys website saying, "He can tweet that or whatever."

Bryant has been healthy for the last two weeks but was held out of the final preseason game against the Dolphins as a precaution; however, he did run routes before the game and looked crisp.

This will be Bryant's first game in about a year, as the last game he played was on Sept. 9th of last year.

Defensive end Marcus Spears will also see his first action on Sunday as he practiced lightly last week and has been cleared to practice in full this week.

Spears sprained his MCL in practice and missed most of the preseason. Phillips said that Spears will most likely play just his end spot instead of spelling Jay Ratliff at the tackle position. That will be left up to rookie Josh Brent.

Marc Colombo and Kyle Kosier spent today rehabbing while the team practiced, and Phillips has said that he doesn't know yet if either will play. He did say that he expected Colombo to practice at some point this week, "If they tell me he's going to practice, he'll practice," Phillips said. "If he doesn't, then I'll be less optimistic."

Colombo had surgery the third week of August to clean out some loose particles in his knee and Kosier sprained his ankle on Aug 18th. Alex Barron and Montrae Holland will start on Sunday if they can't play.

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Dallas Cowboys’ Roster Moves Examined, Gordon Cut in Lue Of Six Safeties

There are several roster decisions made by the front office of the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday (9/3/10) that have garnered a multitude of reactions from fans and experts alike. Among the most seemingly strange moves that Jones, Phillips, and company made was to keep only three cornerbacks with their cut of Cletis Gordon.

Other moves that depart from the norm for the team were keeping two Fullbacks, only two Tight Ends, and six safeties. While at first glance cutting Gordon would appear to be a bad move, once you delve into the defensive back depth chart it becomes a little more clear why this move was made.

If you look at their safeties, the Cowboys have two that have previous CB experience. Alan Ball played 16 games at that position for the Cowboys last year before being moved into the starting FS spot. (It's reported that Ball went up twenty pounds during the off-season to prepare for his move to safety.)

With their fourth round selection the Cowboys gained the services of Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, who has experience at the CB position in college, and has already shown good coverage and ball-hawking skills in the last three preseason games. Gordon's agent was as surprised as anyone due to Gordon's performance in camp, leading the team in unofficial interceptions, but he was dominated in the Miami game on Thursday, getting beat often and unable to make tackles.

Whereas AOA exhibited his ball-hawking skills and instinct for the ball with his interception against Miami, and also displayed the decisiveness necessary to return kicks. McCray showed his worth on special teams throughout the preseason (although he didn't get much play time in the Miami game, he was at the top of the list of tackles going into it).

The abilities of AOA as a return man and his ability to back up both the FS and CB positions, combined with a lower price tag and higher upside when compared to Gordon made it very difficult for the Cowboys brass to justify keeping the fifth year CB.

Especially if keeping him meant cutting someone else who can contribute in a more immediate way, add depth at more than one position, or be a tackling machine on Special Teams. Once you think about it, it's easy to see why the Cowboys' front office found it difficult to justify Gordon's spot on the roster and made a wise move by cutting him.

By adding Gronkowski behind starting FB Anderson they added depth at both the FB and TE positions, taking Martin Rucker's potential position at the number three TE spot. Gronkowski's athleticism and versatility make him ideal for the role as the number three TE behind Witten and Bennett, and provide a safety net should starting FB Deon Anderson get in any more off-field legal trouble.

Patrick Crayton's trade to the Chargers is old news, but should be talked about, as it moves Hurd into position to get more receptions and have a possible break-out year should the injury bug strike the receiving corps. Before Hurd's injury in 2008 he was viewed as the better option at WR than Austin, so it could be an interesting year again for the 'boys at WR, with the addition of Bryant and the possible emergence of Hurd and Ogletree.

With the possible exception of the offensive line I think Jones did a great job at improving the depth of almost every position this off season. We'll see if this transfers into wins as the season progresses.

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Dallas Cowboys Trade of Patrick Crayton to Chargers A Good Deal

The Patrick Crayton trade was a good deal for all involved.

It was a good deal for Crayton because as a 30-year-old receiver with middle-of-the-road skills, the market for his services was not great. Every team in the NFL has a Crayton or two on it. Most of them are a little younger and earn less money than Patrick.

Jerry and Stephen Jones did Crayton a massive favor, and showed their appreciation for his services by finding him a place where he can play on a contending team with a top-flight quarterback in need of a dependable receiver. A more perfect scenario for the lately disgruntled receiver is hard to imagine.

It was a good deal for the Chargers because they got good value for their money. Where the Cowboys are deep, the Chargers are not. Norv Turner and Phillip Rivers needed a receiver they could count on to make solid plays at crucial times. Patrick Crayton is just such a receiver. While the Cowboys would consider Crayton overpaid for what he brings to the table, the Chargers shouldn't.

Moreover, San Diego only had to give up a seventh-round pick to get him.

It was a good deal for the Cowboys because they had to do something. The handwriting was on the locker room wall. The arrival of Dez Bryant pushed Crayton another notch down the depth chart. A couple million bucks for a third receiver is not a bad deal. For a fourth receiver, it is a bit much...especially when the Cowboys think they have other less expensive, equally viable options, such as Kevin Ogletree.

It was also good for team chemistry. Since the departure of Terrell Owens, the Cowboys' locker room has been as harmonious as a nunnery. Team spirit has been high. Camaraderie has been noticeable. Excuse-making has mostly been reduced to the office of the head coach, and even he sometimes owns mistakes and admits there might be room for improvement. Finger-pointing has been relegated to the lunchroom buffet line.

Patrick's frame of mind wasn't likely to improve when he started the season on the sideline with his chin strap undone while a punk kid and an underachieving Roy Williams filled up the available wide receiver space on the field.

Crayton did some nice things while with the Cowboys. He was a good player for them. But he was mostly just a guy, seldom a game-changer. And now he is a guy for the San Diego Chargers.

And everyone should be happy with that.

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Dallas Cowboys Make Final Cuts: Gordon, Siavii Left Off Roster

The Cowboys made their final cuts today before the 5 pm deadline and while most of the cuts weren't surprising, there is one that definitely stands out. 

Cletis Gordon, who had an outstanding preseason in the fight for the fourth cornerback spot, was among those released. Gordon had one interceptions during the preseason  and a reported 10 during camp. He was constantly praised for his work ethic and effort on the field.

The Cowboys could sign another corner but it seems more likely that they'll just go with three corners (Terence Newman, Mike Jenkins, and Orlando Scandrick) considering Alan Ball and Akwasi Owusu-Ansah both have experience playing the position. 

Another surprising cut was defensive tackle Junior Siavii, who played in 15 games last year as Jay Ratliff's backup. Instead, the Cowboys kept rookies Josh Brent and Sean Lissemore, who missed parts of camp and preseason with a groin injury. 

Cornerback Jamar Wall was the only 2010 draft pick not to make the team as he looked very hesitant in limited action. However he could be signed to the practice squad, as well as Bryan McCann, who also has a good shot to make the practice squad. 

The Cowboys also tried to trade Sam Hurd, but decided to keep him in Dallas when they couldn't negotiate a trade to their liking. Hurd said this on the Cowboys website, "I was never nervous, If I don't control it, why worry about it? It was in God's hands."

Many (including me) thought that Deon Anderson's days in Dallas were over with the emergence of Chris Gronkowski; however, the Cowboys kept both, since Gronkowski has experience as an H-back. The Cowboys will most likely use Gronkowski as the third tight end since they only kept two cutting DajLeon Farr and Martin Rucker. 

The Cowboys have 24 hours to put a claim out on a player and then can sign as many as eight players to their practice squad. Here's my projection of the Cowboys players they will most likely be able to hold on to. 

1) Jamar Wall 

2) Lonaye Miller 

3) Jesse Holley 

4) Manuel Johnson

5) Marcus Dixon

6) Bryan McCann

7) Cletis Gordon 

8) Steve Octavien 

Here are the 20 players who were cut today:

OT Will Barker 
OG Travis Bright 
DE Marcus Dixon 
RB Herb Donaldson 
TE DajLeon Farr
CB Cletis Gordon 
WR Jesse Holley 
WR Manny Johnson 
OLB Curtis Johnson 
CB Bryan McCann 
RB Lonyae Miller 
LB Steve Octavien 
TE Jason Pociask 
TE Martin Rucker 
DT Jimmy Saddler-McQueen
LB Brandon Sharpe 
DE Junior Siavii 
OL Mike Tepper 
CB Jamar Wall 
CB Teddy Williams

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Tony Romo Is On Pace To Be Better Than Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning of the Indianapolis Colts has not only been called the best Quarterback of this era, but the best Quarterback of all time. How does the Quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys, Tony Romo, stack up when compared to this football icon? This is the question that drove me to write this article.

Why should you continue reading this analysis when you just read a Tony v Peyton article not a week ago? Well, because, simply put, not too many people know how to fairly compare statistical data. The problem with statistical data is not all of it is equal. You have to find an apples to apples comparison.

Comparing a Quarterback in his first season as a starter to a Quarterback in his ninth season as a starter isn't exactly an apples to apples fair comparison, I think everyone would agree. (Unless of course you're a Peyton Manning fan.) If you want to read an article that compares Peyton Manning’s 9th, 10th, 11th, and partial 12th seasons as a starter to Tony Romo's 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and partial 4th, here is the article you should read:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/301819-manning-versus-romo-who-will-prevail

When I tell you what's being compared it is pretty obvious who's going to win that comparison, is it not? As Samuel Clemens (Better known as Mark Twain) once said, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." What he meant by this is that any statistical analysis or comparison can be manipulated to show what the author wants, and without putting the data into some sort of context the reader cannot possibly know what any of it truly means.

In my original article I put the statistical comparison last, with the defense and explanation (context) of what was being compared first. The problem with this is that you have to wade through a plethora of explanation before you can actually see what you came to see, which would obviously be the stats. Realizing this I decided to switch it around and put the stats first, and then explain (and sometimes defend) my methods and findings afterwards.

The data for this comparison is taken from Tony Romo's 2007-2009 seasons (2nd, 3rd, and 4th season as a starter) and Peyton Manning's 1999-2001 seasons (2nd, 3rd, and 4th season as a starter). I will explain why I chose those seasons to compare later in the article.

*Tony Romo was out for three games in the 2008 season due to a fractured little finger on his right (throwing) hand.

In three fewer games Tony Romo wins in every single statistical category kept by the NFL for passing. Completion percent and yards per attempt are almost identical, with Tony Romo having less than a 1 point lead in each of those categories. Touchdowns are also very close, with Romo only edging out Manning by three (or 0.18 per game). Where the big difference comes into play is in interceptions. Tony Romo has six fewer interceptions over the course of three seasons than Peyton Manning. 

Peyton averages over one interception per game (1.10 INT/G) and Romo averages less than one interception per game (.93 INT/G). A total difference of .17 interceptions per game. Due to Peyton's higher interception rate his overall Passer Rating is over four points lower than Romo's (4.56 to be exact).

Keep in mind this is a comparison between data taken from the same points in their careers, which is a lot more revealing than comparing statistical data between a 9th year vet and a guy who's been riding the bench for three seasons.

Playoffs

 I figure a fairly common response to this is going to go something like "Okay, so Romo has been slightly better thus far in his career in the regular season. So what? Romo buckles under pressure and the playoffs are where it matters. Romo can't win a big game, Peyton can, let's see playoff comparisons!" To head off this criticism of my fine work I decided to include playoff comparisons.

 Tony Romo started his playoff career in his first season as a starter (2006) when he took over from Drew Bledsoe as the starter and played out the last ten games of the season. Peyton Manning had 32 regular season games under his belt when he first entered the playoffs in his second season as a starter. Tony Romo has since played in four playoff games, so that's what we'll compare. His first four playoff appearances to Peyton Manning's first four appearances. 

There are a freakish number of similarities between their first four playoff appearances.

1. They both lost three and won one.

2. Both of their first and second games were losses by less than seven. (One possession games.)

3. They were both blown out in their third game. (The Colt's loss was a shutout, Cowboys scored three.)

4. Both threw for four interceptions total.

5. Their teams both scored exactly 74 points in four playoff appearances.

6. Which means the same total number of touchdowns and field goals were scored. (No safeties or conversions in any game.)

7. Their one win to come out of their first four playoff appearances were not even close. (Peyton won 41-10, Romo 34-14.)

The Numbers:

Same winning percentage, Romo with an edge in Completion percentage, but Peyton edging him out by 26 yards per game, 1.4 yards per attempt, and 2 touchdowns for an overall passer rating of 2.12 points higher than Tony. Keep in mind here that we had to reach a little further into Peyton Manning's career to find four playoff games.

Experience going into each playoff game:

Tony Romo

•               1st Game: 53 and a half games on the bench and 10 starts.

•               2nd Game: 53.5 Benches, 26 Starts, 1 Playoff Loss

•               3rd game: 53.5 Benches, 55 Starts, 2 Playoff Losses

•               4th Game: 53.5 Benches, 55 Starts, 2 Playoff Losses and 1 Playoff Win

Peyton Manning

•               1st Game: 28 Starts

•               2nd Game: 48 Starts, 1 Playoff Loss

•               3rd Game: 80 Starts, 2 Playoff Losses

•               4th Game: 96 Starts, 3 Playoff Losses

Tony Romo got his first playoff win with almost half as many regular season games and one fewer playoff game under his belt. That's a pretty big difference in experience. Of Peyton's first four seasons he only made it to the playoffs twice, losing in the first round both times. Romo has made it three out of four times, advancing once. The one time he didn't take the Cowboys to the playoffs was when he was out for three games during the regular season. 

The common theme amongst Romo's detractors is that he can't win a big game. As you can see, Tony Romo actually has attained an equal level of success in a smaller amount of time with less experience in his first four years as a starter at Dallas than Peyton Manning had in his first six in Indianapolis.

I hope this can at least attempt to calm some of Romo's detractors into seeing reason.

That ends the comparison portion of this article, but since I figure there could be a lot of argument about the seasons I chose to compare, I explain my reasoning for my decisions below. Please note that this section isn't nearly as polished as the first. The following reads more like a forum post than an actual article, but I figured it was important to include the thought process behind the comparison within the article itself.

By far the most difficult thing about a fair comparison is taking into account all the mitigating factors that make it difficult to get an apples to apples comparison, while trying not to be biased. Some of the things I took into consideration are: 

Romo's injury. It's fairly easy to take this into account, I simply don't use overall season statistics, I use per game statistics. This is accurate, but not completely. The game that his injury occurred in was against Arizona in week six of 2008. It is documented that the injury affected Romo's play in the last drive where he had two missed passes to Terrell Owens. As these plays resulted in a punt that was blocked and returned for a score, in over-time, it is easy to conjecture that had his hand been okay they might have won the game. Had they won that game they would have made the playoffs. I won't go into how painful breaking a finger is and how long it takes to heal completely.

If Peyton's 2008 and 2009 season were included in this comparison I would take out the last two games of the '09 season and the last of '08 because they didn't matter and Peyton got benched to save him for the playoffs, since home field was secure. These seasons are not included so these games are not a factor.

Romo didn't start a game until game 8 of his fourth year, and only passed in two previous games. This is probably the hardest thing to account for. Romo undoubtedly gained experience being on the bench behind Bledsoe, Testaverde, Henson, and Carter for the first 55 games of his career.

How much experience is difficult to account for, Romo not starting the first 55 games of his career undoubtably makes it unfair to compare Romo's first 55 games with Manning's first 55 games. Especially since for the first 55 games Romo has no passing statistics, and Manning started all of his first 55 games.

So what should be compared?

Should it be the first 55 games? Obviously not. It would be Manning's impressive numbers versus Romo's nill.

Should each season be compared to each season? (Romo's 2006 to Peyton's 2006, 2007 to 2007, etc) I still don't think that's a fair comparison, considering Romo only started his first game in week 8 of 2006, plus it was his first season as a starter. The gap in starting experience is 8 years, even the gap in NFL experience is 5 years.)

I can't compare season-to-season (9th as starter versus 1st as starter), or rookie-to-rookie (No. 1 overall draft pick placed on the first string versus undrafted free agent placed on the third string). Both of those would be extremely unfair to Romo.

It would be slightly unfair to Peyton to compare Romo's 2006 (1st season as a starter) vs Peyton's 1998 (1st season as a starter) because Romo did have three years on the bench to learn from veteran QB's, whereas Peyton was thrown straight into it as a rookie.

Comparing Romo's 4th season (1st as starter) vs Peyton's 4th (4th as starter) still seems a little unbalanced in favor of Peyton, because he started all the games previous to his 4th NFL season. Still a difference of three years as starter versus three years on the bench.

How do I assaign some value to Romo benefiting from sitting on the bench and practicing with two veteran QB's (Bledsoe and Testaverde)

Now, because of these difficulties, I compared Romo's second year as a starter (2007) 3rd year (2008), and 4th year (2009) to Peyton's second (1999), third (2000), and fourth (2001) years starting.

Why not include Romo's 2006 campaign, when he was a Pro-Bowler, and Peyton's rookie year when he had 3739 total yards?

Well, I chose to exclude their first seasons because Romo sat for 52 games in a row, came off the bench and played 2 downs in another, then came off the bench and took over the starting job for Bledsoe in another, then started the last 10 games in 2006. I'll count the game with two downs as a benched game here since two plays is insignificant. (Although he went 2/2 with 30 some yards, a TD, no interceptions, and had a perfect passer rating.)

So that's 53.5 benched games and 10.5 started in 4 seasons. That's the experience Romo has coming into the 2007 season (his second as a starter and the first season used in this comparison).

Peyton's experience going into the 1999 season was 16 games as the starter. So, since Romo has 10.5 games under his belt going into the comparison, we subtract that from Peyton's 16, which then compares Peyton's left over 5.5 games to Romo's 53.5 benches. That equates one full game played to about 10 games on the bench. I think 10 games watching from the sidelines would probably be a quite a bit less beneficial than actually playing five and a half games as a starting QB, but this is about as fair as it can get, taking into account that there is probably experience gained from sitting on a bench.

 Also, for you Peyton Manning fans out there, Romo's 2006 season versus Peyton's 1998 season, Romo wins every per game statistic, except TD/game, even if you count the two games he didn't start. (Romo wins: TD/Int ratio, Yards/Game, Yards/Attempt, Completion percentage, Rating, Int/Game, literally every stat other than TD/game, usually by a large margin.)

You wouldn't want to add their first seasons to the comparison; Romo would only gain a further advantage.

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NFL: Tashard Choice Trade Bait for Big D?

Calvin Watkins of ESPN Dallas is reporting that the Cowboys are fielding trade offers for running backs Marion Barber and Tashard Choice.  A trade of Barber looks highly unlikely, though, as Barber’s contract should probably scare away any suitors.

Interestingly, while the Cowboys have shot down the possibility of trading Barber, they haven’t ruled out dealing Choice.  The team probably believes that with Choice’s talent, they could receive a player who could make a bigger impact than the third-string running back.

They’re wrong.  I explained a couple days ago why I think Choice is the team’s best running back.  He’s not flashy like Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson, but he does everything really, really well.  In a recent installment of our “22 in 22″ Emmitt Smith Tribute Series, I explained that Emmitt was the same way—

"Emmitt Smith is one of the greatest running backs in NFL history, yet I can envision that 50 years down the line, people will not consider him as such.  He rarely cracks people’s lists of the top three running backs of all-time (or even the top five, for that matter).  I don’t even know of a person who considers the NFL’s all-time leading rusher to be the league’s best ever running back."

"The problem (for others, not for Emmitt) is that Smith wasn’t flashy.  He wasn’t big.  He wasn’t tremendously fast.  He wasn’t even very charismatic off of the field."

"Instead, Emmitt possessed the “boring” qualities of running backs (but ones that are just as vital as those above, if not more so)— great vision, incredible balance, and remarkable short area quickness.  Of course, there’s also the off-field characteristics, such as determination, but I want to focus on why Emmitt’s on-field play was truly under-appreciated."

Does Emmitt’s game remind you of anyone?  Not big, not flashy, and great vision.  If it still isn’t ringing a bell, take a look at my recent notes on Tashard Choice—

"Tashard Choice is Dallas’ most complete running back.  His balance and vision are incredible."

Now, I’m not saying Choice is as talented as Emmitt or has that sort of future, but he does possess the same characteristics which made Emmitt’s game so incredible, yet so under-appreciated.

From a practical standpoint, Dallas will be very sorry if they unload Choice.  Barber and Jones don’t exactly have a great history of health.  What happens when one of them gets hurt this season?  You ready to roll with Lonyae Miller or Herb Donaldson as your primary backup?  Yikes.

In my “Grading the ‘Boys”: Running Backs segment, I provided Choice with a ‘B+’ overall grade for his play in 2009.  There were four components to that grade, and as you might expect with Choice, he was consistently good in all of them.  A ‘B+’ for short-yardage running, a ‘B’ for overall running, a ‘B+’ for receiving, and an ‘A-’ for pass protection.

In my opinion, trading Choice because he’s so talented is analogous to buying a Ferrari and letting it sit in the garage forever.  Yeah, it’s nice to have a Ferrari, but it isn’t all that much fun if you don’t drive it.  It would be stupid to trade in the Ferrari for a Hyundai simply because you’d get more use out of the Hyundai.  How about, oh I don’t know, you drive your Ferrari?

Don’t trade Choice simply because you think another player might get more playing time.  You don’t need a Hyundai, Jerry—you’re rich.

And you’ve got a Ferrari sitting in the garage, just aching for his opportunity to be driven.

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Patrick Crayton Traded To San Diego Chargers For Seventh-Round Pick

Jason LaCanfora is reporting the Cowboys have agreed to send wide receiver Patrick Crayton to the Chargers for a seventh-round draft pick.

Yesterday, I gave you five reasons the Cowboys should keep Crayton, but apparently his $2 million salary was too much for the Cowboys to handle.  To me, the Cowboys are a better team with Crayton than without him, regardless of his contract.

Now, the team could be in some trouble if either Miles Austin, Roy Williams, or Dez Bryant gets injured.  None of those players have much experience in the slot either, although Austin and Bryant have the skill set to benefit from moving inside in three-receiver sets.

The seventh-rounder Dallas received as compensation for Crayton shows that they probably would have released Crayton had they not found a trade partner.

More to come, including an update on my 53-man roster projection.

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Breaking News: Dallas Cowboys Trade Patrick Crayton To The San Diego Chargers

This morning, the owner of the Dallas Cowboys, Jerry Jones, was on with Newy Scruggs of 105.3 FM The Fan in Dallas talking about the final cuts that would be made this weekend.

Scruggs brought up Patrick Crayton and was of the opinion that Crayton was the second best receiver on the Cowboys' roster and that the chemistry between him and quarterback Tony Romo was solid. While Jones didn't disagree directly with Scruggs, he did say that Kevin Ogletree also had good chemistry with Romo and that he was brought in to handle the punt returning duties.

There had been talk since Cowboys' training camp opened that Crayton wanted to be traded or given his outright release. There hadn't been much talk about it until yesterday when the rumors surfaced again the Crayton had asked to be given his outright release so he could sign with the team of his choice.

His agent, Fred Lyles, told ESPN, "It is clear the direction in which the organization is moving in. Crayton is not part of the rebuilding plans."

It appears Lyle was right. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Cowboys traded Crayton this afternoon to the San Diego Chargers though it's not known who the Cowboys will receive a player or a draft pick in return.

Crayton spent six seasons with the Cowboys, totaling 2,888 receiving yards and 23 total touchdowns during his time in Dallas.

He will now head to a team that already has a talented receiving corps, but you have to believe that this marks the end of the Vincent Jackson era in San Diego. Bringing Crayton in could mean that the team is close to trading Jackson.

This is a deal that absolutely benefits the Cowboys. Crayton, as his agent said before, was not going to part of the Dallas Cowboys this season and it was just a matter of time before this move was made.

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